Little Birdies

by Kevin on January 17, 2012

So I have written about Smith Tower a few times and it is in an interesting situation.  A commercial brokerage and management firm now owns the building and he delinquint mortgage, however, the courts appointed a reciever to manage the facility.  The reciever is Goodman real estate, which is now responsible for the management of the facility.  I don’t exactly know why the court ordered a reciever to manage the building, other than the fact that CBRE had requested that it be done. Originally I had thought there were legal reasons for doing so, but there was a lingering suspicion that perhapes CBRE didn’t want to involved with the building.  It doesn’t make sense for a company that is able to manage a commercial space to not do so, unless they never intended to acquire the property to begin with.  I cannot say for sure, but the fact that CBRE has announced a foreclosure auction of Smith Tower set for March 23rd certainly makes it look like that’s the case.

It is interesting because I had postulated earlier that the building looked to be a good investment even with a loan default.  Though the occupancy numbers were poor, it seemed a result of bad timing and possibly poor decision making by the former owners, rather than any inherent flaw with the property itself.  By moving straight to a foreclosure auction, rather than an acquisition and eventual sale, it definetly looks like CBRE is trying to dump the property as soon as possible.  Was this part of the original plan by CBRE when they bought the non-performing loan, or did they make a mistake and guess that Walton Street would be able to cover their loans?  I don’t know, and frankly I am still very much a neophyte so I couldn’t make a good guess either way.  Though this sort of course of action seems strange to me, perhapes this is normal procedure in this market sector.

The sale does depend on one thing though, whether or not anyone shows any interest in the property.  If CBRE cannot auction off the building then things will become more difficult and they will be forced to deal with a property that it appears they do not want.  It is all dependent on whether or not they can increase occupancy levels and with them cash flows.  This is were the little birdies come in.  Real estate is a somewhat insular field in certain respects.  There are national companies, but much of the development and management is done by local businesses.  Because of that it is not uncommon for there to be cross company relationships, and with that an informational grape vine.  I heard something through this grape vine that could spell potential trouble for the eventual sale of Smith Tower.  One thing I never anticipated was what happens to the people who work at the building.  They are now employees of a new company, and with it new company rules apply.  One thing I have heard is that the vacation time that had been accrued by the manager, facility, and security personnel has been reset.  I am sure that those individuals are not happy about this.

It also makes me wonder if any benefits were lost.  If that were the case, then I would not be surprised if some of those individuals were looking to jump ship.  Ordinarily that probably wouldn’t be a big problem, save for the rapidly approaching auction date.  Training new managers and facility personell takes some time, and during that time it would probably be harder to convince potential tenants to become actual tenants.  This could potentialy be a major stumbling block for CBRE and I am confused as to why CBRE or Walton Street would take an action like this.  Transfer of ownerships and forclosures are a very sensitive time and it seems that prudence would dictate to try and not create any more hurdles.  Let’s keep this in mind:

According to CBRE:

• The 42-story tower is 70 percent vacant.

• Monthly rents total just $250,000.

• The rents aren’t adequate to pay the 257,000-square-foot building’s monthly operating expenses, and CBRE has been advancing Walton Street money to make up the difference.

“It’s unfortunate, because it’s a great building — it’s iconic,” said Kip Spencer, co-founder of commercial real-estate database Officespace.com.

“It’s obviously severely under performing.”

 It’s severly underperforming yet another potential clog might have been thrown in the machinery? It seems like a very poor decision was made, whether or not CBRE has any say the matter I do not know, but the last thing I would want to do would be to potentially anger the individuals that manage and care for the building.  We will see in a few short months whether or not this move will come to haunt them, or if it really doesn’t matter at all.  Either way I will be taking notes.

 

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China Property Bubble

by Kevin on January 12, 2012

Well the DJC raises an interesting point about construction, and that point is that major property projects are started when the economy is at its hottest, and because of this a large increase in large scale develpment could signal the nearing of an economic crash.  It is an interesting theory, and when examined it seems to have some merti.

The Great Depression started right around the completion of the Chrysler and Empire State buildings.

The 1970s economic crisis was unflurling right around the the completion of the World Trade Centers and Sears Tower

The Petrona towers were finished during the Asian Financal crisis.

And finally the monstrosity, because it is totally out of scale with the rest of the area, that is the Burj Khalifa was finished right before the Great Recession.

This would mean the continued rapid property development in China is a harbringer of things to come.  As I alluded to earlier about planned cities, China has a massive property bubble.  In fact outside of exports and infrastructure spending by the central goverment; property development is the major economic driver.  This is never a good thing.  Property development should always be in reaction to other economic growth, not the driver of it. It is a casual relationship; you develop property because growing companies, and wealthier people need or want more land.  When it becomes a driver of growth, well you get what happened to the United States, and has since happened to the rest of developed world, a financial crisis.

China is home to half of the worlds skyscrapers being constructed, and much of this construction is happening in second or third tier cities.  To think of it another way, imagine Seattle as a first tier city.  You could also argue then that Tacoma, Everett, and Spokane would be second tier cities, with other cities like Wenatchee and Bellingham being third tier.  Using this backdrop imagine if most of the sky scraper development was going on in these cities.  Now for the tier two cities it makes some sense, spokane is the major city of eastern Washington, but it wouldn’t make sense for major sky scraper development to happen in Wenatchee, it simply doesn’t need it.  That is the situation China is creating for itself, an eventual fall.

In fact it seems like it might already be starting to happen.  Residential sales have dropped by nearly 50% and commercial developers are slashing prices on their properties, in some cases going as high as 20%.  You’d be surprised to think of China as being hooked on credit, but according to an old article by the telegraph, they are, and the marginal utility of every additional borrowed dollar is benefiting GDP less and less each time.  If China continues into a full blown economic crisis, its a matter of if not when, it will affect the rest of the world.  A five trillion dollar economic doesn’t go belly up and not make waves.  How will this affect America? How will it affect Seattle?

 Tough to say.  I don’t envision China calling in all their debts to the US at once, they simply can’t because it would hurt them more than it would help.  But I do see it affecting businesses that either, do a lot of trade, or, do a lot of manufacturing in China.  It probably will push the US back/deeper into recession given that we are already on that path.  But there are plenty of other nations that are not hurting that could possibly pick up some of the manufacturing slack, though I really cannot say with any certainty.  Honestly the longer China can keep up the facade the better it is for America, simply because it gives us more time to right our house before the shock, though I do not anticipate any real positive development for our economy during the interim.  Too many individuals are vested in this broken model to allow the necessarily changes be made right now, but rest assurd these changes will come eventually; and perhapes the end of the Chinese economic dragon will be the catalyst.

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Merrill Place no longer in the Vulcan nest

January 5, 2012

This is an old piece of news, frankly I am embarrassed that I missed it, but Vulcan has sold their majority interest in the Merrill Place building in Pioneer Square.  Merrill Place is at the corner of 1st and king and is home to cow girls sports bar, the great Italian restaurant Carmines, where many of Seattle’s [...]

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Little Blurbs

December 29, 2011

  Home prices are continuing to fall as the flurry of buyers from , like I wrote in my last post, high unemployment and poor economic outlook does not make for confident buyers.  Seattle the fourth largest year over year decline amongst all the cities in the Case-Schiller index.  The drops are all economic related as there are certain [...]

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Possible Apartment Bubble

December 28, 2011

An article appeared on the Seattle Times a few days ago about the possibility that the apartment marketing might possibly be over built.  I cannot say I am surprised that the Times is doing an article on this, it seems since the economic bubble collapse and the long standing recession that papers have gotten a [...]

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Colllege Bubble

December 27, 2011

The DJC writes an article about the completion of a new dormitory residence for my alma matter Seattle University.  I’ve had the opportunity to walk by the most recent expansion in student living since the very controversial conversion of Chardin from an assisted retirement community to student residences not too long ago, and I have [...]

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Community Management

December 19, 2011

Along the same theme as my earlier post, can you really plan cities, the djc has a an article about community management.  Specifically on the success that is the Pike Pine neighborhood in capitol hill.  Now at first glance this seems like planning, however, this is very different from what I wrote about in my [...]

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Cargo containers, more than for cargo?

December 16, 2011

A commercial space in Georgetown is now being listed for sale at for $ 1.5 million.  Nothing unusual about that, except that the building is made from cargo containers.  I noticed a few days ago that Starbucks was also triyng their hand at ‘cargotecture’, I thought it ugly but interesting and almost did a blog [...]

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Apartments Being Developed

December 14, 2011

Current list of apartments being developed or planned that I know of.  As time goes on I will add more details as to their status and additional information as it comes along. Units Name/Address Location Developer 225 Minor Ave South Lake Union   323 8th & Seneca First Hill Lacona Development 492 Nort Lot Pioneer [...]

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Can you really plan a cirty?

December 14, 2011

New Urbanism, an idea that came into prominence during the 80s, is focused around the goals of densification, reduction on the need of automobiles, walkable and transit friendly environments, organized around centers that fulfill entertainment and economic needs.  In some ways you could call it taking the concepts of old main street town cities but [...]

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